The "Debunk" - Episode I, Cash for Clunkers

While cleaning out my inbox (from the last few years), I ran across several emails of the chain variety. Being a Texas resident, I tend to randomly get ideological emails with which I generally don't agree. The subject of this one was the CARS program (Cash for Clunkers program) from 2009. Lots of conservatives I know have legitimate beefs with liberals and President Obama, but they tend to expand their disapproval to all the facets of the democrats policies. Now, I'm a socially liberal, fiscally conservative individual, and I generally side with liberals in elections while agreeing with facets of conservative doctrine. I genuinely thought "cash for clunkers" was a good program for both the economy and the environment. I've pasted the body of the email below, so give it a read. Then I'll go through it again with comments....

"Subject: Democrats Cash for Clunkers Program

A vehicle at 15 mpg and 12,000 miles per year uses 800 gallons a year of gasoline.

A vehicle at 25 mpg and 12,000 miles per year uses 480 gallons a year.

So, the average clunker transaction will reduce US gasoline consumption by 320 gallons per year.

They claim 700,000 vehicles exchanged in the Cash for Clunkers program – so that's 224 million gallons / year.

That equates to a bit over 5 million barrels of oil.

5 million barrels of oil is about ¼ of one day's US consumption.

And, 5 million barrels of oil costs about $350 million dollars at $75/bbl.

So, we all contributed to spending $3 billion to save $350 million.

How good a deal was that ???"

Gotta love these "one sided uses of math to prove how stupid President Obama is," numbers don't lie, right? Wrong. They lie when you use the wrong numbers. I'll go through this again with some comments to the thought process....

A vehicle at 15 mpg and 12,000 miles per year uses 800 gallons a year of gasoline.

12 000 / 15 = 800 gallons, fine with me.

A vehicle at 25 mpg and 12,000 miles per year uses 480 gallons a year.

12 000 / 25 = 480, this is already looking pretty good.

So, the average clunker transaction will reduce US gasoline consumption by 320 gallons per year.

800 - 480 = 320, nice. And that's per program participant. So when gas costs $2.50/gal that's a savings of $800/year.

They claim 700,000 vehicles exchanged in the Cash for Clunkers program – so that's 224 million gallons / year.

And 320 x 700 000 = 224 000 000 gallons saved. Just FYI, that's a lot of gas.

That equates to a bit over 5 million barrels of oil.

There is a non-negligible math error here, 224 000 000 / 42 = 5 333 333.33 barrels of oil, as there are 42 US gallons per barrel. That equates to a difference of 6.249%, which while you're working in absolutes as this emailer does, turns out to be significant later.

5 million barrels of oil is about ¼ of one day's US consumption.

According to the US Energy Administration, the US uses 18 771 000 barrels/day. So that is 28.4% of our daily consumption saved per year. But for arguments sake, sure, I can agree that it's about 25% of our daily consumption. This is really a statistic showing exactly how much gas we use.

18 771 000 x 365 = 6 851 415 000 (That's almost 7 billion barrels/year, ~ 290 billion gallons)

So the 5 333 333 barrels we save each year is only 0.07% less than our annual usage. But this email is about money, so we'll stick to that.

Fig. 1 - US Oil Consumption, US Energy Information Administration (http://www.eia.doe.gov/)

And, 5 million barrels of oil costs about $350 million dollars at $75/bbl.

5 000 000 x 75 = 375 000 000 (Error of 6.6%, and if you're keeping track, that's a compound error of more than 12% already). We've already established that its actually 5 333 333 barrels, and $75/barrel is a ridiculously conservative price for petrol. When I originally read this email it was about $79, and today its quoted at $91 on the stock market. So I'll do some easy math here:

Fig. 2 - From CNNMoney Stock Ticker on Dec. 28, 2010

5 333 333 x 75 = 399 999 975 (for simplicity, that's $400 million), or an error of 12.5% to their own math.

5 333 333 x 79 = 421 333 307, or an error of 17.8% (!) for the 2009 math. I won't do the 2010 ($90/barrel) calculation, since this was done for 2009, but that number will make itself apparent again later.

So, we all contributed to spending $3 billion to save $350 million.

This is where things get stupid and short-sighted. Using that logic, this does seem like a bum deal and exactly the conclusion the original author of the email wanted you to reach. "What? We spent $3 billion to save $350 million? Stupid Obama!" When in reality we are looking at a yearly savings of $420 million dollars. While that still seems like a drop in the bucket compared with $3 billion, the "long term" is not taken into account here. Saving $420 million dollars/year is a lot. That means we will make back that $3 billion in savings over the next 7.14 years, and every year after that the $420 million becomes flat savings.

How good a deal was that ???

A great deal. Considering that oil is already up to $90/barrel, and is speculated to continue to climb to as much as $5/gallon, saving $420 million/year is actually a conservative number. The initial $3 billion investment will only get returned sooner than expected with increased gas prices

5 333 333 x 75 = 375 000 000 (email authors conservative 2009 values)

5 333 333 x 90 = 480 000 000 (my 2010 values)

480 000 000 - 375 000 000 = 105 000 000 (increased savings in dollars from 2009 to 2010)

The math above shows that every year the savings increase by more than $100 million should oil prices keep increasing.

This is just one example of the little annoyances I get every now and again. Best I can tell, this conservative email has been properly thrashed. Go back to crying over a non-existent Kenyan birth certificate, jackass.

Let's Talk About Accents... Baby

From a young age, I have had a "knack" if you will for accents, impressions, or what-have-you. It actually all began in elementary school with a wicked Bill Clinton impersonation. Then, I started doing Apu and Snake from The Simpsons and now I'll try pretty much to do anything. My dad definetly fueled the fire as he did accents too and thought mine were funny. When I moved to the UK I was first exposed to the disparity in peoples impressions of a person based directly on their accent. It was here that I started to emulate the primary regional dialects of the British Isles; English, Irish, Scottish. The latter coming most naturally, but all convincing in their own right, I tend to fall into most readily. The best use of this skill came a few years later at college in the US. For, while UK girls couldn't care less about an American accent, US girls tend to get lubed up at the sound of an accent from, well, anywhere but the US. After several successes and failures (which I'll delve into more specifically as appropriate) I managed to devise rules for using said accents. And now, an Overly-Pretentious production, I give you...

Accents: The Simple Rules to Follow

1) This is probably the most important rule of all. Don't use your accent if you want (or expect) to see the girl again. This rule does not really pertain to any success/failure criteria, but protects the user of the accent from future smiting by a girl he likes. If you use an accent, and the story behind it, to pick a girl up, that is how she knows you. And I've learned the ladies have a particular dislike for dudes whose their first encounter with turned out to be nothing but bald-faced lies. If you're planning a one night thing for whatever reason, knock yourself out. You would also not believe how the odds play out with girls finding you again either. At a late-night party in college, in an attempt to get more girls to the event, my friend Geary told some girls he was talking with on the phone to "Talk to his sexy-accented Scottish friend." This was of course my cue to put the accent on and get the girls to the party. After speaking with several girls on the phone and hearing "OH MY GOD YOUR ACCENT IS SO HOT" more than once, a young lady got on the phone an after talking to me a few moments says, "Wait a minute, I know you. You're the accent guy!"I of course denied the claims but she had me pegged. We hooked up at a party months before and I had subsequently not called her. Needless to say, this was an immediate ABORT. I made up an excuse and handed the phone back. We got bit in the ass about that one.

2) When talking to a girl while using an accent, go with what you know. Nothing spells accent-related disaster faster than trying to make up a story on the fly. I was lucky enough to have been to Scotland several times and lived in the UK for many years. This made it easy for me to have a convincing back story (it was generally true). The easiest way to muddle through this quagmire is to fake only the accent. Stick with your actual life, but, you know, sounding sexy. This leads to the inevitable question, "Why do you have an accent?" This is easy, you go with either the:

A) I was born here, but moved afterwards then came back (if you already let it slip you're from the US), or...

B) I was born there, and came back after learning to talk

Both of these are reasonable because, generally, no one remembers what learning to talk was like anyway so you don't get questions about it. You are then able to continue on with your life-story without having to fabricate any further.

3) Like any good group of dudes, you'll have a wing-man, the point here is to collaborate with your boys. If you decide an accent is the way to go, make sure the guys around you know the score before the game begins. As fake accents aren't uncommon in the US scene, girls like to confirm before getting too heavily invested in the social situation. So make sure your guy friends know what accent your using, where you're "from," and the "origins" of your accent. Conflicting stories will also kill you plan. If you're heading out with a friend who will drop the charade because he's got a chance, you might want to forgo using an accent around him, or remind him that a guy with an accent will increase the odds of everyone in the group scoring. Even better, if you've got a good chick friend, make sure she knows the story as girls at the bar/party will be more likely to trust her.

Fig. 1 - This Should be Your Pregame

4) One of the stranger tips is to go it alone. This meaning be the only accent in the group, not troll for booty by yourself. It's just as sexually suicidal to go alone (just you without any other people) when picking up ladies. While I have done accent-man-dates, then tend to not work out as well. Though fun, for some reason having two dudes in one group with accents (either from common, or different countries) sets off an internal alarm for girls. They become immediately suspicious. From #2 and #3, I try to give tips to avoid or alleviate suspicion. It's natural that they are with all the impostors trying to gain entry to their knickers. But two accented dudes is just too much. But the suspicion aroused by two accents is incredibly difficult to over come. There are enough questions and dodges to remember for one person; now multiply that by two. And trying to keep other peoples stories straight is hard enough while trying to make sure yours jives as well. If you and a friend have good enough accents to both do it, go by the KISS principle.

5) Finally, it's always important to know your country. If you have to do some geographical, historical, or even societal/current events research about your accent's country, then do it. Any little thing (and little things are often best) you know about your "homeland" is points in your favor. Oh, and if you're doing an accent and you start chatting with a girl who is any of the following:

A) a native of the country which accent you're mimicking

B) lived/lives in the country which accent you're mimicking

C) studies that country

Any of those criteria should lead to an immediate abort. This girl probably knows more about your homeland than you do.

Fig. 2 - Believe it or Not, This is Actually a Problem for Some Folks

These tips by no means guarantee success. But if you follow them, it should increase your odds. So, remember know your homeland, be the only accent in your group, make sure the crew knows what is going on, have believable story, and never use the accent for a woman you want to see again.

Image credits:

Fig. 1 - http://www.badidea.co.uk/2009/08/journos-doing-the-work-of-regulators-again-in-goldman-sachs-huddles-case/

The Gayest Metal Bands

The first thing to note about this is that I may like some of the following bands, regardless of what screaming benders they are. There are several factors which make these bands gay. All of these factors will become exceedingly apparent during the course of the post. As a public service announcement; I have absolutely nothing against gay people, it was just the best adjective for describing some of these queers....

Kiss

I know I'll get ran up the flagpole for this one. The first thing you'll be thinking is, "Gene Simmons?? There is no way that muthuh-fuckas gay!" And you'd be correct. I, in fact, like Gene. But Kiss is an absolute nostalgia band. Everyone loves thinking back to the '70s and how cool Kiss was and how much their parents hated that they were going to see them.

1 - Lois Just Told Peter "Kiss is Gay"

Did you know Kiss has 19 albums? Yes, 19. I am a metal head, and you know how many Kiss songs I can name? Two. Detroit Rock City, and Rock 'n Roll All Nite. So we've established that they weren't particularly memorable musically, now lets dissect the rest. The face paint was a total hook. It took a gimmicky jaunt like face paint to get them noticed. Other than that, the platform shoes aren't helping them any. They were definitely a testament to the disco era, but what metal musician wants to be associated with "Saturday Night Fever" or the "Bee-Gees?" No one, that's who. And I know Kiss has a lot of fans, both inside and, outside metal. I just don't feel it.

Conclusion: totally gay.

Judas Priest

This is the first of several bands on this list that I really, really like. Judas Priest is freaking metal. And for those of you I might be catching unawares, Rob Halford (singer for Judas Priest) is gay. Like, actual gay, the digs-other-dudes gay. But damn does he rock.

2 - As if the Leather Chaps Weren't Enough, Rob had to go Crotchless

Once you really listen to some Priest songs, you start to figure it out. Even the titles kind of give it away. If songs like "Turbo Lover," "Ram it Down," and "Hot for Love" didn't give it away, their penchant for chains and leather (of the dominatrix style) surely drives the point home.

Conclusion: totally awesome, totally gay.

Motely Crue

One phrase can sum-up the homosexualitute of Motely Crue: Glam Rock. It was the '80s, getting noticed was hard. So the solution? Lets make our band of men look like women. Glam rock is the skid-mark on the whitey-tighties of metal. Motely Crue did most metal right; had some kick-ass riffs, fast drums, and loved their sex and drugs. I do like more Motely Crue tunes than I'd care to admit to a large (small) group of readers, but that doesn't change how freakin' gay they looked on stage. It wasn't just the obscenely tight pants, knee-high boots, and spandex, it was (notice recurring theme) the make-up.

3 - These Guys Look Like Girls

This wasn't even in the same vein as Kiss, this was flat out use of Revlon and Rimmel London products. Call me crazy, but if you're a metal band and need to go to a Mary Kay party before you go on tour? Well, that dog just won't hunt, sir.

Conclusion: visually gay.

Dio

This is another one that I really enjoy. Ronnie James Dio (b. 1942 - d. 2010), aside from developing the iconic "Devil's Horns" gesture synonymous with metal worldwide (it was NOT Gene Simmons), rocked for decades with his project Dio as well as Black Sabbath.

4 - We Will Miss You, Your Majesty

Dio did have one thing that made them... you know. Dio had this fantastic lyricism. They sung of unicorns, angels and demons. It was just a little gay. Oh, and the one song to rule them all as far as gay? Rainbow in the Dark. Cut, print, gay.

Conclusion: lyrically gay

Dragonforce

These guys suffer from the same token as Dio, their lyricism is a bit queer. Aside from that, every Dragonforce music video I have ever seen has this "dueling guitarists" motif that annoys the shit out of me. They'll have one of their (completely ridiculous) guitarist play some solo, then he'll drink some beer while the other one plays an equally technical solo, and back and forth.

5 - Beer and Solos

It's like watching a really fast paced game of Pong on an old CRT TV.

Conclusion: music video-ly gay.

Linkin Park

Now, I'm not sayin' these queers are queers, but if the streets were paved with pricks they'd be dragging their asses. There are few bands I dislike more than Linkin Park. How is it possible they still try to play-off this angsty, teenage persona? There is only one time and place wherein you, or anyone else on this rock, are allowed to cry about high school. You what that's called? High school. Everyone else seems to understand it. I mean, once someone gets out of high school, they stop complaining about the people who beat them up, or how your parents never understand you, or how I couldn't get any girls... uh, I mean, how they couldn't get any girls. It's a right of passage. Mature, evolve, change, understand it. I don't know anyone who listened to Linkin Park in high school and still likes their stuff today. Not letting go, especially of all that crap is epically gay. The band also has this retarded lyricism to their songs. It's all insufferable poetry and obvious metaphors that speak to the arrested intellectual development of these homos. "These lines don't make sense grammatically or lyrically? Fuck it, no one listens to the words anyway."

Conclusion: unwaveringly gay.

Gwar

During their shows, this band uses a giant phallus to spray white matter on the crowd. That is all.

Conclusion: phallically gay.

Photo Credits:

1 - Family Guy/Seth MacFarlane

2 - http://www.mypodcast.com/fmimage-4-165321.jpeg

3 - http://www.growfruitandveg.co.uk/grapevine/attachments/general-chitchat/6476d1227563474-80s-clothes-motley_crue.jpg

4 - http://powerlinead.files.wordpress.com/2009/11/ronniediophoto.jpg

5 - Screen shot from "Through the Fire and the Flames" music video, www.dragonforce.com

Would You Like to See How This Works?

I guess it was inevitable. As most things, I will generally fervidly oppose doing something I would enjoy purely to maintain my dignity until I eventually cave and give in. This has happened on several occasions. Most topically is probably facebook; I got on to that, after resisting for a little while, and got really into it. Most recently would have to be Texas, I'm starting to accept the fact that I was born here (but that may be out of spite in order to aggravate the people who wish they were born here) and I am actually enjoying living here now.

Like most people who blog (not all), I am under the impression that what I have to say is important, insightful, intelligent, pertinent, controversial, indisputable, poignant, divine, astute, clever, soulful, sorrowful, sagacious, apathetic, sympathetic, exclusive, exceptional or any combination thereof. But unlike most people, my blog most unambiguously will be all of the former. By this time you should be aware of why this blog is titled the way it is. If not? Don't let the door bestow upon you a sense of humor on the way out.

Back to how this works; I'll give you a brief overview of the last 27 years and 8 seconds. Ready? Born in Texas, moved to several Middle Eastern countries, back to the US, middle school, loser, nerd, geek, straight As, baseball, Colorado, broken bones, Houston, high school, loser, nerd, drivers license, manual transmission, England, loser, nerd, rugby, college, loser, nerd, COOL, aerospace, rugby, band practice, beer, Texas, NASA, NEEEERRRD, graduate school, physics, fiancee, dogs, house, nerd. Then you click the button to follow my blog. Are you surprised I'm still a nerd? No? Then we'll end on, "then you click the button to follow my blog."